lauantai 28. kesäkuuta 2014

Nerd's look on the World Cup - Which continent should have more places

I live in Africa, so it is natural for me to hear lots of grumble about African teams being discriminated agains when it comes to selection of World Cup countries. More specifically, how many places different continents get into their Continental qualifying games of the total 32. The argument was recently raised again by my fellow football enthusiast, africanist and dear friend Iina Soiri. Mother of our young Finnish football star Pyry with Namibian decent.

Currently:

Africa: 5
Asia and Oceania: 4
Europe: 13
North America: 4
South America: 6

I might agree with her argument, that it would benefit the game immensely to include more African teams in to the selection, but would it be fair to have more than 5 of 32 countries from Africa? Have they earned more places with their recent performances? We could argue the case from athletic perspective, considering cultural aspects enriching the game or look into the finances of these emerging economies and think about the future. But what do the numbers say? How well did the African nations fare against other continents?

Lie, Total Lie, Statistics
First, the five African countries scored 12 points between them and two advanced from the group stages: Nigeria and Algeria. Passing rate from the group stages was therefore 40% and African nations scored 2,4 points on average.

In comparison 13 European nations had six teams advance from the group stages, giving Europe 46% passing rate with total 61 points scored. That gives European nations 4,7 points average per nation.

Altogether there were 135 points scored by 32 nations, giving the group stages an average of 4,4 points per nation. That said, African nations fared almost half below average and European nations just above average.

Then it doesn't come to as a surprise to anyone that followed the games that the Americas fared extraordinarily well and on the contrary the Oceania and Asian countries simply seem to have failed in everything. Zero of four made it through and total 3 points were scored combined by the Asia and Oceania countries. That is mere 0,75 points per team. Zero wins, three draws and 9 losses from 12 games.

Quite to the contrary, South American countries had most success, over shadowing almost every other Continent by stunning winning record. Five of six (83%) South American countries advanced and six countries combined incredible total 41 points. On average the South American countries scored 6,8 points. That's almost two wins and a draw from three matches. That's amazing and although I haven't done a historical study on it yet, it certainly deserves one. Is it greatest success by a continent ever?

What certainly does seem the greatest and historic success is North America's results, 3/4 (75%) of them making it out of the group stages. Four nations Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica and United States scored 18 points combined, giving an average of 4,5. Almost the number of Europe and above the average of 4,4. The Lilliputians of Soccer have arrived!

Who is over- and who is underrepresented?
Back to the original question then, who is over- and who is underrepresented. Clearly Africa with their average 2,4 points and Asia with 0,75 points should lose some places into the next World cup as they scored way below the average, 4,4 points per nation.

Vice versa underrepresented were the Americas, when 8 of 10 teams made it off the groups and both North and South America scored way above average. With simple calculations then, here are the results how mathematics would argue various continents should be represented in the next World Cup in 2018:

Africa would lose two places into the World Cup and only 3 countries should make it with 12 points.
Europe should have 14 countries, increase of one.
Asia should lose three and have only one.
North America should stay with four. And,
South America should increase their number by four to 10 countries in the next World Cup.

Africa 5 --> 3
Europe 13 --> 14
Asia and Oceania 4 --> 1
North America 4 --> 4
South America 6 --> 10